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UFC 149 Faber vs. Barao: Pre-Fight Analysis

Urijah Faber vs. Renan Pagado This headlining fight for UFC 149 was originally supposed to be a featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Eric Koch but after an injury to Aldo, the UFC decided.

Urijah Faber vs. Renan Pagado

This headlining fight for UFC 149 was originally supposed to be a featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Eric Koch but after an injury to Aldo, the UFC decided to manufacture a replacement title fight out of nothing by creating an interim bantamweight belt to be held while Dominic Cruz is sidelined. After an ill-conceived attempt to spark a buzz over who Urijah Faber would face for the interim title, the UFC announced that Renan Pagado would be the opponent as expected.

Faber is a known commodity. His looks and personality combined with his early dominance of the featherweight division have made him one of the more marketable stars in MMA and he deserves a huge portion of the credit for pushing the growth of the lighter weight classes. Not only has he aided that growth through his performance in and out of the cage but his Team Alpha Male gym has become the best gym on the world for small former wrestlers looking to make the transition to MMA. Faber has solid wrestling and an impressive arsenal of submissions to compliment that wrestling. At the height of his career, he earned his victories by taking his opponents down and finishing either via submission or occasionally ground and pound. Unfortunately for him, he seems to have already passed his peak at age thirty three and has struggled in recent years with hand injuries early in fights. He has not been able to deal with either Dominick Cruz or Jose Aldo losing by decisions in each of his last two title fights. In Pagado, he faces a fighter who is often compared to Aldo. If he wants to earn the victory, he will have to show the unpredictable yet technical game that he brought the cage in his prime. He will need to get Pagado off balance and bring the fight to the ground. From there, he will need to find a way to maintain control. A finish seems unlikely but if he can control Pagado, he could scramble his way to a victory.

Renan Pagado is the exciting up and comer in the bantamweight division. He is widely considered to be the biggest threat to Dominick Cruz and some would even consider him the favorite in that fight. But first, he’ll have to deal with Faber. Pagado lost the first fight of his career and has not lost since then compiling a twenty eight fight unbeaten streak and a seventeen fight win streak. His game seems to have no significant holes. He is a dangerous striker with a diverse arsenal of kicks and punches. His takedown defense in excellent but he isn’t afraid to go the ground because his jiu-jitsu is some of the best in the division. In this fight, he will likely have a slight advantage everywhere the fight goes except maybe in the scrambles and the transitions. He will probably settle in to a strategy of trying to defend the takedown to fight Faber on the feet the same way Cruz and Aldo have done in the past. If he does that, he should have a clear advantage and be able to earn the decision. Faber is incredibly durable so if Pagado can somehow earn the finish, that would be a serious statement.

The bookmakers have Pagado as a solid favorite at -190 with Faber at +165. Keeping it that close shows respect for the former champion and a certain amount of caution as Pagado has yet to face competition on Faber’s level. But in reality, that line could shift further in favor of Pagado and no one would argue. The most likely script for this fight is that Pagado will keep the fight on the feet and strike his way to victory. But if Faber can turn this into a scramble fest and keep Pagado off balance, he could pull off the upset and earn the right to face Cruz for a third time.

Hector Lombard vs. Tim Boetsch

In the only fight to benefit positively from the injuries that infected UFC 149, Hector Lombard replaces Michael Bisping to face Tim Boetsch in a matchup of top middleweights. The winner of this fight is likely to jump to the front of the line along with Chris Weidman as the top contenders to challenge Anderson Silva for the title.

Since dropping to middleweight, Boetsch has looked great earning consecutive victories over Kendall Grove, Nick Ring and former title challenger Yushin Okami. The last victory in particular elevated his status in the division and a win over the highly regarded Lombard would put him in the foreground of the title picture. Boetsch has shown a well rounded ugly game that lives up to his nickname as the “Barbarian.” He has finishing power in both hands and his boxing is deceptively technical. He mixes wrestling with his boxing and has shown the ability to bring fighters to the mat and control position. Once on the ground, his ground and pound is some of the best in the division and he is a constant threat to end the fight. In this fight, he will likely want to avoid engaging with Lombard on the feet. He will need to use his boxing to set up a takedown and control Lombard on the ground. If he can do that, he will ground and pound his way to a decision victory. But if he can’t and is forced to stand with Lombard, he could be in serious trouble.

Lombard comes to UFC aboard one of the louder hype trains in recent memory. He has destroyed his competition in lesser organizations compiling a twenty five fight unbeaten streak and twenty fight win streak. Most recently, he has dominated fighters like Trevor Prangley, Jesse Taylor and Faleniko Vitale in Bellator. He has devastating power in his hands and finished six of his seven opponents in Bellator. His strategy will be simple. He will look to keep the fight standing and box with Boetsch. We should get an idea quickly as to how Lombard stacks up against UFC competition. This will be by far the biggest test of his career and we should know early in the fight how he will respond. We’ve seen a myriad of fighters move to the UFC from smaller organizations and immediately have the weaknesses in their games exposed. That is a real possibility in this fight. But if Lombard comes in and earns a victory, he will establish himself as a real contender at middleweight and will have to be included in the title discussion. And if he earns an impressive victory, the UFC will have a tough decision as to who deserves the next shot at Anderson Silva.

The line on this fight currently has Lombard as a huge favorite at -380 with Boetsch at +315. Obviously, the bookmakers are impressed with Lombard’s performance against lesser competition and expect him to bring that level of explosiveness to his UFC debut. Boetsch is in trouble every second that this fight stays on the feet and no one will be surprised if Lombard lands a huge combination to end his night. But if Boetsch can wrestle Lombard to the mat and keep him there for a few minutes at a time, he could steal this fight.

UFC 149: Hector Lombard vs. Tim Boetsch Tactical Breakdown

In the furor surrounding the cursed UFC 149 card, the Octagon debut of Hector Lombard, the would-be challenger to Anderson Silva’s 185-pound title, has been largely overlooked. The Cuban’s bout with “The Barbarian” Tim Boetsch may not transcend the sport, but there is no doubting its title implications. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at Saturday night’s Co-Main Event.

Let’s be clear from the outset. This is not a “gimme” for the Tyson-esque former Bellator middleweight king. Tim Boetsch has been on a tear recently, and will enjoy a significant size advantage over Lombard.

Sure, “The Barbarian” was beaten from pillar to post in his last fight, against the interminably underrated Yushin Okami, but his mental toughness and hammer-like right hand carried him to perhaps the biggest win of his career—much to Joe Rogan’s excitement.

How should Hector Lombard approach a fight against an opponent who will doubtless dwarf him in the cage? Why, with his usual brand of unbridled aggression, of course. It is the only way he knows how to fight, and it just so happens to be the most effective approach against Boetsch.

Lombard should start the fight as though he has dinner reservations. Given his occasional stamina issues, the cartoonishly muscular Cuban should seek to end Boetsch’s night early. And when one considers the power Lombard carries in his fists, a quick finish is not beyond the realm of the possible.

As always, it is easy to sit here and speculate as to how a fighter should approach his job, but the reality is that Lombard will need to get inside on “The Barbarian,” running the risk of getting clipped on the way in.

I would prescribe kicks in order to close the distance, but Lombard is perhaps more likely to throw a head-butt before he resorts to a nuanced kicking game. He will have to be lucky or hope his chin holds up while he wades in with haymakers.

There is also the slim possibility that the former Olympic judoka will take advantage of his world class clinch game, relying on throws and trips to put Boetsch on his back. Strangely, this does not appear to be Lombard’s modus operandi, so this is only marginally more likely than the aforementioned kicking scenario.

On the other side of the cage, Boetsch needs to get off to a faster start than is the norm. One gets the feeling that Lombard will be less charitable than Okami.

He cannot expect to take a pounding for a couple of rounds on Saturday and still remain conscious, unless he plans on making a comeback from the afterlife this time—Joe Rogan may explode if that occurs. Boetsch must not to get caught cold.

Boetsch’s game has never been subtle, but he might have to bank on a little technique this weekend. Now, I am not suggesting the tank-like Maine Wrestling Hall of Famer turn into Floyd Mayweather, but it wouldn’t hurt to put a little distance between himself and the walking muscle.

If the fight does turn into a Greco match against the cage, that might very well favour “The Barbarian,” despite being the less credentialed clinch-technician. He can use his size and strength to wear on Lombard, which could pay dividends towards the end of the fight.

Although this is a tough test for the former Bellator champ, he will likely find success at some point in the fight. And with his power, the smart money should go on a first- or second-round TKO for Lombard.

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Tim Boetsch: ‘Michael Bisping Runs and Tries to Play the Point Game’

You can tell a lot about a fighter when his back is against the wall. Will he wilt or will he overcome the odds and win the fight?
Tim Boetsch faced that problem at UFC 144.
Boetsch was easily down two rounds when he fought Yushin Okami in February. Bu…

You can tell a lot about a fighter when his back is against the wall. Will he wilt or will he overcome the odds and win the fight?

Tim Boetsch faced that problem at UFC 144.

Boetsch was easily down two rounds when he fought Yushin Okami in February. But with his trainer, Matt Hume, telling him to finish the fight, Boetsch went back in and finished Okami 54 seconds into the third round.

Now Boetsch is one step closer to his dream of fighting for the middleweight championship of the world.

Boetsch (15-4 MMA, 6-3 UFC) squares off against former Bellator middleweight champion Hector Lombard (31-2-1, 1NC, 0-0 UFC) in the co-main event this Saturday at UFC 149.

Boetsch took a lot away from his fight against Okami as he prepares for Saturday’s bout.

“The biggest thing for me is just realizing I can fight hard through three rounds,” Boetsch told Bleacher Report. “Just my confidence with competing with the top guys in the sport.

“Yushin Okami is a super tough guy and is coming off a title shot. He’s just all-around a good fighter and I was able to put him away, so it really boosted my confidence.”

Boetsch was originally supposed to face Michael Bisping at UFC 148 earlier this month, but due to a rash of injuries to the card the UFC moved it to Saturday’s card. Then Bisping suffered an injury early last month, so Lombard is now the opponent. Boetsch feels Lombard’s style of fighting excites him more than Bisping’s.

“Because Michael Bisping runs and tries to play the point game,” Boetsch said. “He’s just not that exciting to watch.

“The complete opposite of that is Hector Lombard. A guy who’s going to run straight at you and try to take your head off with huge punches. That’s going to be an exciting fight. It’s a fight the fans want to see.

“I don’t know too many fans that want to see somebody running around the cage trying to not get into a fight.”

A lot of fighters and critics have said Lombard hasn’t fought top competition in his 25-fight winning streak. Boetsch agrees with the assesment, but knows Lombard is still a very dangerous fighter.

“He hasn’t faced the level of competition he’ll face in the UFC, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a super tough guy or a top fighter,” Boetsch said. “He has really heavy hands and knockout ability.

“The guy’s a butt-kicking machine. I respect him and I expect him to come out and try to take my head off. I’m not taking him lightly by any means. I agree with [Mark] Munoz. He hasn’t fought the level of competition he’s going to get here in the UFC.”

The middleweight division has become one of the most stacked in the UFC. With Anderson Silva defeating Chael Sonnen almost two weeks ago and Chris Weidman beating Mark Munoz last week, Boetsch feels if he defeats Lombard he’s next in line to face Silva.

“Honestly, I think I’m next,” Boetsch said. “I think I just beat Okami, I’m going to beat up Hector and then I believe I’m next in line.”

UFC 149 takes place Saturday night from Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The Boetsch vs Lombard fight is on the main that airs on pay-per-view starting at 10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT.

You can listen to the entire interview with Tim Boetsch here.

You can follow me on Twitter @fightclubchi.

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CagePotato Presents: The State of the UFC’s Middleweight Division

(So, Anderson, who would *you* like to face next?)

By Jared Jones

Let’s face it, the current state of the middleweight division is that of anarchy, a notion made all the more bewildering when you consider that it has been trapped beneath the crushing, totalitarian rule of the same king for the better part of a decade now. Yet somehow, it seems we can barely go a day without hearing that Vitor Belfort wants to fight so-and-so for the next title shot, or Michael Bisping wants to fight this guy for the right to do the same. Or that guy. Or that guy.

And indeed, the issue of solving who should rightfully receive the next ~~beatdown~~ shot at Anderson Silva is a tough one, dividing fans on a level that only TRT, vaseline, or Steven Seagal could match (scratch that, *no one* likes Sensei Seagal). Thankfully, CagePotato is here to clean up the mess instead of making it for once, so join us as we lay out in detail what must be done to organize the middleweight division’s long list of contenders in order of title shot worthiness (I swear to God I had something better for that). Feel free to debate this list if you want, but this is how it’s got to be.

On the Outside Looking In

Michael Bisping

We know we like to poke fun at the guy, but in total seriousness, you’d have to be insane to believe that Bisping deserves a shot at the middleweight title. Yes, he is 4-1 in his past 5, as is the case for many of the UFC’s top middleweights, oddly enough. And yes, there’s little denying that Bisping has looked more tenacious and well rounded as of late than he ever has. But first, take a look at the names that make up his win streak. The biggest win he has under his belt in the past few years is Yoshihiro Akiyama, a 1-4 now welterweight who has been a complete bust in the UFC. Other than that, you have a now retired reality show host, a retired journeyman, and Dan Miller, who we absolutely refuse to say anything bad about.

(So, Anderson, who would *you* like to face next?)

By Jared Jones

On the Outside Looking In

Michael Bisping

But before you even scan through all of his past opponents, look at his last opponent. Regardless of how you scored the fight, Bisping did in fact lose to Chael Sonnen at UFC on FOX 2. To say that he would deserve a title shot with a lone victory over Brian Stann would be jumping the gun a little, don’t you think? Bisping needs to prove he can not only hang with, but defeat, at least a couple of the division’s top contenders before he should even be mentioned in the title picture by anyone but himself.

Brian Stann

A lot of what can be said for Bisping can arguably be said for Brian Stann, whose wins at middleweight, though impressive in execution, did not exactly come over a who’s who of the division either. Amidst wins over a two time promotional washout, a submission “specialist,” and the UFC’s punching bag, Stann’s biggest win is that of Chris Leben, which, while not a huge victory, is still more impressive than that of Akiyama these days.

The common link between these two is of course, Chael P. Sonnen. Stann was absolutely dominated by Sonnen from start to finish in their battle at UFC 136, stuck defending a rear-naked choke for a good deal of the first round and succumbing to an arm-triangle in the second. Bisping, on the other hand, was not only able to take Sonnen the distance, but lost a closely contested decision in doing so. Do their respective performances against Sonnen place one of them higher than the other? Absolutely not. The fact that these two were recently paired to throw down at UFC 152 is no coincidence, because they both stand on exactly the same ground, and are in need of not only a win on September 22nd, but at least one more high profile win before they get to call themselves top contenders

Chael Sonnen

I can already hear the cries of “Anderson nuthugger” on the horizon, but if you know me at all, you know that I am a fan of Mr. Sonnen, despite his body’s inability to cash the checks that his mouth writes. That being said, we can only look into the rear-view mirror for so long, and although Sonnen’s performance against Silva at UFC 117 was nearly perfect, his performance at UFC 148 was anything but. We all know that the UFC could sell Sonnen/Silva III in its sleep, but the truth is, Sonnen simply needs a little time off to rest and recover.

His list of wins is easily the most impressive of anyone in this category, but with two losses to the champ, Sonnen finds himself in a similar position to that of Josh Koscheck. Could he beat most of his fellow contenders? Probably. Do most of us really think he stands a chance of beating Silva a third time around? Not really, but like I said, we would sure as hell watch him try again. But before Sonnen dusts off his plastic belt and starts making audacious claims about the people of Brazil, we think he needs at least a couple wins before he should be launched back up the middleweight rankings. For his return fight, perhaps he could face a guy like Mark Munoz, who was also recently knocked off the immediate contenders list. A win over Munoz, followed by a win over another contender, would easily warrant him a spot at the top once again.

Join us on page 2 for a look at the division’s upper-tier contenders…

UFC 149: If Hector Lombard Wins, Does He Deserve a Title Shot?

The middleweight division has been ruled over by Anderson Silva for quite some time, and the MMA world tends to get frustrated when no viable challengers are perceptively present.Because of the divergence of criteria over what constitutes a title shot,…

The middleweight division has been ruled over by Anderson Silva for quite some time, and the MMA world tends to get frustrated when no viable challengers are perceptively present.

Because of the divergence of criteria over what constitutes a title shot, it’s hard for fans to come up with a universal solution of who should fight Silva next.

It is an issue that has plagued the division for some time now, and a question that is asked by the commentators and fans alike: Who can stop that guy? There is always a conflict over who is deserving of the next shot, and now with Silva’s greatest rival vanquished, people are itching to know who is next in line.

Probably the most interesting prospect is Bellator champion, Hector Lombard. “Lightning” will be making his UFC debut against Tim Boetsch at UFC 149; a matchup that will help shape the contender status of the middleweight division.

Lombard is not some ordinary fighter who had a couple of good-looking fights and now has come over; he brings with him a statistical behemoth that is making his case for a chance to stomp “The Spider.”

Hector Lombard is currently 31-2-1 (1). He has been fighting for eight years now, and his only losses came to him in 2006.

Since then, he has accumulated a monstrous 24-fight win streak and a few championship titles along the way. Out of his 31 fights, 24 of them he has finished. He is a well-rounded fighter, and has proven he can end a fight early.

But do all of these numbers on paper merit a title shot?

Given the history of the UFC, the promotion juggernaut is not opposed to giving outside big-namers a quick path to the title shot. Usually they will have them take one fight prior to acclimate them and to prove themselves. They did this with Jake Shields and Alistair Overeem, and it may very well happen with Lombard.

If Lombard wins over Boetsch, he all but secures a title shot based on the history of the business. If it is a split decision, it may be another story; but a decisive win would make a huge statement.

Not only that, but the marketing and business drive behind putting a finisher on a 25-fight win streak against the greatest in the world is a substantial money-maker. Both Silva and Lombard haven’t lost since 2006, and something has to give.

The argument against Lombard however, overlooks the numbers and looks at quality over quantity. With a 24-fight win streak, some fans do not believe he has fought anyone of any sort of caliber found in the UFC. People’s opinions of quality of opponents differ, but based on that logic, Lombard would have to prove himself a little more before he gets his shot.

But sometimes all it takes it one really great win to change people’s minds.

Before the Munoz vs. Weidman fight, not many people were rallying behind Weidman like they have for Mark Munoz who has been in the MMA scene longer. Not to say Weidman didn’t have his fame, but after the dominant performance he had against Munoz, it seems his name has been thrown into the hat for title shot consideration.

If Lombard can go out and knockout or submit Boetsch early, one would speculate you will see a demand for Lombard to face Silva next. Winning by unanimous decision after a dominating performance would have a similar effect, but it is better if Lombard can finish it early, or at all.

Stylistically, it is an interesting matchup. Paired with it, it’s hard to deny the intrigue behind two men with such fantastic statistical numbers. The marketing is obvious, and both men are champions. It all boils down to how fans feel about Lombard’s deserving qualities, or if he has any at all.

At the end of the day, the UFC will always try to look at it fiscally, as well as trying to be crowd-pleasing. We will have to wait and see what comes out of UFC 149, but if Lombard emerges victorious, you can bet on a strong rally for him to challenge the pound-for-pound king.

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UFC 149: Faber vs. Barao — Extended Video Preview

(Props: YouTube.com via IronForgesIron)

The UFC’s summer schedule marches on this Saturday with UFC 149: Faber vs. Barao, the promotion’s injury-ravaged Calgary debut. Here’s the full-length video trailer for the event, which is especially worth watching if you’re not too familiar with Renan Barao, the Brazilian bantamweight on the 28-fight win streak who’s battling Urijah Faber in the main event. Barao is the kind of deadly-from-all-positions phenom who seems destined for a major title someday, and collecting the interim bantamweight strap with a big win over the California Kid would be a star-making moment for the Nova União product.

Later in the preview, the UFC introduces y’all newbs to Hector Lombard, but unfortunately they can’t show any of his stunning Bellator knockouts, so we have to settle for training footage and subtitled English. He’ll be facing Tim Boetsch, who says he’ll be next in line for the middleweight title after he finishes Lombard. (Sorry bro, Weidman already called dibs.)

Finally, we get a look at injury replacement Shawn Jordan, who trainer Greg Jackson calls “one of the most athletic heavyweights I’ve ever seen in my life.” For proof, check out the backflip he does at 7:23. Jordan is riding back-to-back second-round stoppage wins against Lavar Johnson in Strikeforce and Oli Thompson in his UFC debut. But is veteran striker Cheick Kongo too much, too soon? And are you guys going to buy this card or what? Shoot us your UFC 149 thoughts in the comments section.

(Props: YouTube.com via IronForgesIron)