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UFC 140 Predictions

Filed under: UFCWill Jon Jones continue his domination of the light heavyweight division, or will Lyoto Machida get the belt back? Can Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira avenge his loss to Frank Mir? Will Tito Ortiz continue his surprising career resurgence, or …

Filed under: UFC

Will Jon Jones continue his domination of the light heavyweight division, or will Lyoto Machida get the belt back? Can Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira avenge his loss to Frank Mir? Will Tito Ortiz continue his surprising career resurgence, or will he be sent a step closer to retirement by Antonio Rogerio Nogueira?

We’ll answer those questions and more as we predict the winners at UFC 140.

What: UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida

When: Saturday, the Facebook stream begins at 5:45 PM ET, the Ion televised card starts at 7 and the pay-per-view starts at 9.

Where: Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Predictions on the five pay-per-view fights below.

Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida
With a win, Jones would put a bow on what may have been the best year any fighter has ever had in the UFC: Jones has already destroyed Ryan Bader, Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson in 2011, and adding Lyoto Machida to that list would be an incredible feat.

Machida, however, may be the light heavyweight whose style is the trickiest for Jones to handle. Machida is so elusive that Jones is going to have a hard time getting to him even with his decided reach advantage, and Machida is such a good counter-striker that Jones is going to have to be careful not to get too fancy. Machida has frustrated a lot of great fighters, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him win a decision.

But Jones has been so dominant of late that I simply can’t pick against him. If Jones is able to take Machida down he should be able to use his superior strength to bully him on the ground, and even if the fight remains standing, Jones is eventually going to tag Machida the way Shogun Rua did. Of all the light heavyweights in the world, I give Machida the best chance of beating Jones. But right now I’d pick Jones over anyone.
Pick: Jones

More Coverage: UFC 140 Fight Card | UFC 140 Results

Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Mir has made no secret that he’s a little annoyed that he even has to give Nogueira a rematch, three years after Mir won by TKO. And Mir really doesn’t like the fact that Nogueira and his supporters have suggested that an illness prior to the last fight is the reason Nogueira won.

This time around there should be no excuses, and the fight should go more or less the way the last one did: Mir will get the better of Nogueira standing, and he won’t even try to engage Nogueira on the ground. Nogueira did earn a solid win over Brendan Schaub in August, but to the extent that these two have changed since the last time they fought, I think Mir has become bigger and stronger while Nogueira has become older and slower.
Pick: Mir

Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogério Nogueira
A year ago Ortiz was largely written off as washed up, but he deserves a lot of credit for persevering: He beat Ryan Bader soundly and then fought a good fight in a losing effort against Rashad Evans. And the mere fact that Ortiz is now preparing to fight for the third time in less than six months, after fighting only once a year every year from 2007 to 2010, says a lot about how much healthier he is after his recovery from back surgery.

Nogueira, on the other hand, is on a two-fight losing streak and hasn’t had a really strong performance since he TKO’d Luiz Cane more than two years ago. If either one of these guys has looked washed up recently, it’s Little Nog.

However, in this particular matchup Nogueira’s boxing is going to carry the day: Nogueira should be able to keep Ortiz at range and batter him with punches, and eventually Nogueira will wear Ortiz down enough to win by TKO.
Pick: Nogueira

Claude Patrick vs. Brian Ebersole
Patrick is 3-0 since signing with the UFC lat year, and if he can win this one he’ll start to make some noise in the welterweight division. But Ebersole, who’s been fighting for 11 years, is much more experienced than Patrick and has a more versatile ground game, and should be able to win a decision.
Pick: Ebersole

Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung
My pick for fight of the night, Hominick vs. Jung has all the makings to be one of those fights that makes you lean forward, clench your fists and stare in awe of the intensity of the action. Hominick will have the hometown crowd on his side in Toronto, just as he did the last time he fought, when he lost to Jose Aldo at UFC 129, but in that fight it was a Rocky-like crowd, cheering him because he simply wouldn’t quit no matter how much punishment he took. In this fight, Hominick will be the better striker in the cage, and he should be able to out-land Jung and win convincingly.
Pick: Hominick

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Damage Control: Four Explanations for Why UFC 140 Hasn’t Sold Out Yet

(*crickets*)

From the Toronto Sun via BloodyElbow:

Just eight months after 55,000 fight fans filled the Rogers Centre for the mixed martial arts company’s first ever Ontario show, Toronto will host UFC 140 on Saturday night. The fanfare for the event has paled in comparison to last April’s spectacle when the city had been buzzing for months about UFC 129, which was headlined by Canada’s own Georges St. Pierre. But this time around, it is being held at the much smaller Air Canada Centre…Despite the great line-up, there’s been little hoopla over the city’s second ever UFC event, which still has tickets available.

What the hell happened, Toronto? How did you go from a record-destroying immediate sellout in April to a “Good seats still available!” situation in December? On the surface, it doesn’t make much sense. So let’s throw some excuses around…

(*crickets*)

From the Toronto Sun via BloodyElbow:

— Canada’s interest in MMA is about 90% dependent on Georges St. Pierre. Make no mistake, Canadians are rabid MMA fans when GSP is on the card. When he’s not, only the hardcore fans show up. In that sense, Canada is no different than any other country in the world. When an athlete from your part of the globe is dominating a high-profile international sporting competition, you pay attention. Think about how apeshit Filipinos go for Manny Pacquiao. Would they be known as a nation of boxing fans without him? And do you really think I would have watched one minute of women’s soccer this year if not for Hope Solo?

— UFC 129 had novelty factor. UFC 140 does not. The April show marked the UFC’s first visit to Toronto after the sport was Ontario legalized the sport in 2010, and the crowd was packed with locals who just wanted to see what all the fuss was about. Well, they saw it, and now they don’t have to see it again.

— The card’s just weaker this time. If you’re Canadian, you could certainly make this argument. UFC 129 didn’t just feature GSP vs. Jake Shields, but also another Canadian (Mark Hominick) challenging for the UFC featherweight title, plus Canadian fighters battling American fighters in the first eight fights on the card, and Randy Couture’s farewell appearance. By comparison, UFC 140 doesn’t have a single Canadian on the poster. The biggest native stars on Saturday night will be Hominick and Claude Patrick, who will be leading off the main card in bouts against Chan Sung Jung and Brian Ebersole, respectively. Good matchups? Sure. Good enough to convince 16,000+ people to pay for seats? Apparently not.

— The UFC can’t promote every card like it’s a blockbuster. In a way, UFC 129 was a once-in-a-lifetime moment, and it’s unfair to compare “Jones vs. Machida” to “St-Pierre vs. Shields.” But this conspicuous lack of local excitement might be part of a larger trend. As the promotion loads its schedule to ever-busier levels, breaks into new markets (or back into old markets), and juggles live broadcasts on pay-per-view, FOX, FX, and FUEL, they will no longer be able to spend a lot of time promoting each individual show. UFC 140 might be a victim of the UFC’s success, or at least its current state of frantic forward motion. Plus, Dana and the gang are still hung over from their holiday party with Snoop Dogg. Did you really expect anything to get done this week?

(BG)

UFC Holds ‘Community Works’ Event in Toronto for Youth and Reveal Plans to Implement Anti-Bullying Program in Canada

(Video courtesy of YouTube/ BlahBlahBlah2145)

While in attendance at the UFC press conference in which the promotion announced announced that it would be making it’s long-awaited debut in Ontario last year, I asked the company’s newly-appointed Canadian director of operations, Tom Wright, whether or not there were plans to implement any community-based programs such as in-school anti-bullying initiatives. Although it was early in his tenure, Wright told me that it was definitely something that they would be looking at and that programs such as these were some of the most rewarding he experienced as the head of the Canadian Football League Commissioner.

It’s been 19 months since Wright was hired and Zuffa announced this week that it’s planning on working with local schools in the Greater Toronto Area, where it’s Canadian branch is located, to implement a mentoring program for youth who have experienced bullying. Though it’s too early to tell, there are indications that a regular stream of fighters could speak to Toronto kids about their own experiences with bullying as youth, teachers and parents and if all goes well, it could become a implemented in schools across the country.

(Video courtesy of YouTube/ BlahBlahBlah2145)

Ahead of this weekend’s UFC 140 event in the city, the UFC, in conjunction with the Toronto Police Services held a special event today at Saturday’s venue featuring some local fighters like Mark Hominick, Sean Pierson and Sam Stout and American fighters like bantamweight champion, Dominick Cruz and ex-NFL player-turned UFC heavyweight Matt Mitrione.

During the two-hour event, which wrapped up minutes ago, students listened to short speeches by the fighters about their own trials and tribulations with bullying growing up and were given an opportunity during a Q&A period to ask the fighters questions.

Critics of the sport have been vocal of their opposition to having fighters who punch, kick and choke their opponents for a living into the schools to tell kids to not do what they do outside of competition. Ironically, the same critics have been mostly silent about local boxing legend George Chuvalo and former Toronto Argonaut Mike “Pinball” Clemons visiting schools dozens of times every year.

Toronto City Councillor Doug Ford, whose brother Rob is the city’s mayor, told reporters over the weekend that he supported the initiative and that he hoped the city would embrace the program that will help at-risk youth, but his comments were met with a furor by his fellow municipal politicians who don’t agree with the partnership with schools in the city, even if bullying is a real epidemic there.

The question is, does fighting for a living actually make a person less credible when it comes to talking to kids about bullying?

Leave your thoughts in the comment section.

UFC 140 Predictions

Main Card Predictions Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Jon Jones (c) vs Lyoto Machida Love both these guys. The patience of Machida will probably give Jon Jones a little bit of trouble for the first round. However, I don’t think there is much that Machida can do against the elusive Jones. The best chance Machida has

Main Card Predictions

Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Jon Jones (c) vs Lyoto Machida

Love both these guys. The patience of Machida will probably give Jon Jones a little bit of trouble for the first round. However, I don’t think there is much that Machida can do against the elusive Jones. The best chance Machida has at winning this fight is being Jon Jones Guard and landing long punches. I hope the odds are too far apart on this one. I like Jon Jones winning this one pretty much no matter what. If the odds are like -600 though, I might take Machida.

Heavyweight bout: Frank Mir vs Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira

A rematch that Mir won the first time. I think this back to being a toss up again as Nogueira was sick with the flu last time they fought. If the odds are ridiculously skewed in favor of Mir, I like Nogueira to win. Otherwise if its close go with Mir.

Light Heavyweight bout: Tito Ortiz vs Antônio Rogério Nogueira

Tito ain’t KOing Nogueira on the feet so imo that will give Nogueira time to work his championship level boxing. Ortiz’ best shot at winning this is obviously one way. The double leg > GnP. However, he is going against a Nogueira. So in that position you have to worry about being armbarred. The two brothers have some of the best armbars in the game. Nogueira’s boxing is much much better than Tito’s. I like Nogueira winning this, but I’ve been finding myself rooting for Tito in his last few fights. Maybe its the nostalgic fan in me. I used to dislike Tito all those years he fought before his stint on the TUF show, before he came back for the first Ken Shamrock fight, but these days I’m a fan. I think Nogueira has the right skillset to give Ortiz problems. I see little Nog taking a decision. Cardio could be Ortiz ace in the hole in this one though.

Welterweight bout: Claude Patrick vs Brian Ebersole

Ebersole. There are only a few people in the division that can beat him right now.

Featherweight bout: Mark Hominick vs Chan Sung Jung

Awesome fight potential, but I lean towards Hominick here. Sung Jung is wild and Hominick is crisp and tight. Big advantage for Hominick.

Preliminary card (Ion Television)

Light Heavyweight bout: Krzysztof Soszynski vs Igor Pokrajac

Soszynski will likely win being bigger and better on the ground. I like the way Igor fights though.

Middleweight bout: Jared Hamman vs Constantinos Philippou

Hamman is the guy that presses and he doesn’t look like hes tough or a fighter, but hes got skills. I expect him to win then sell you a computer when its over.

Lightweight bout: John Makdessi vs Dennis Hallman

One thing you can count on here is that Hallman won’t be wearing a mankini. Only prediction to be made here.

Bantamweight bout: Yves Jabouin vs Walel Watson

Preliminary card

Lightweight bout: Mark Bocek vs Nik Lentz

I want to see this fight. Bocek has been a monster lately, but Nik Lentz is always fun to watch and has some good skills. On the ground though Bocek has distinct advantage.

Welterweight bout: Rich Attonito vs Jake Hecht

Lightweight bout: Mitch Clarke vs John Cholish

Four UFC Fights That Would Have Different Outcomes Under ‘Stockton Rules’

(Smiling in the presence of a woman? Automatic one-point deduction. / Photo via Sherdog)

As sort-of hazily defined by Nick Diaz back in January 2010, the Unified Rules of Stockton is an alternate MMA scoring system in which the winner of the fight is the guy who would have won if the match had continued indefinitely, and the loser is the guy who looks more fucked up afterwards. Under Stockton Rules, only the final round is scored, and holding onto top position without doing damage actually counts for negative points.

The more commonly used ten-point-must system keeps things nice and uniform, and doesn’t require judges to predict the future. But as we’ve seen time and time again, the fighter who has more points on the scorecards isn’t always who you would call the “winner.” So which notable UFC fights would have different results if the scoring system was a little more gangster? Let’s get an obvious one out of the way first…

DAN HENDERSON vs. MAURICIO “SHOGUN” RUA
UFC 139, 11/19/11

(Smiling in the presence of a woman? Automatic one-point deduction. / Photo via Sherdog)

DAN HENDERSON vs. MAURICIO “SHOGUN” RUA
UFC 139, 11/19/11

According to the scorecards: Henderson wins by unanimous decision, 48-47 across the board.

What really happened: Shogun got thoroughly handled in the first three rounds, but managed to get some momentum back in the fourth, and spent much of the last round in mount, slugging the crap out of a helpless Hendo who clearly had nothing left. Henderson was saved by the bell, and had fortunately built up enough of a lead early in the fight to clinch the judges’ decision.

According to Stockton Rules: Rua would be awarded a pre-emptive TKO victory, based on the likelihood that he would have finished the fight by round seven.

BJ PENN vs. JON FITCH
UFC 127, 2/27/11

According to the scorecards: Penn and Fitch fought to a majority draw, with two out of the three judges scoring it 28-28.

What really happened: Penn vs. Fitch is a perfect showcase of the shortcomings of the ten-point-must system. The Prodigy was awarded the first two rounds 10-9, for edging out Fitch by the narrowest of margins. Then, Fitch comes back in round three and beats the living hell out of Penn. Add it all up, and the fight is…dead even? Maybe by the numbers, but in no way was that fight a “tie.”

According to Stockton Rules: An obvious decision victory for Fitch, who would still be punching BJ Penn right now if time limits were removed.

JOSE ALDO vs. MARK HOMINICK
UFC 129, 4/30/11

According to the scorecards: Aldo by unanimous decision (48–45, 48–46, 49–46).

What really happened: Just like Dan Henderson’s fight against Shogun, Aldo built up an unsurmountable lead in the early going of this five-rounder. But due to a horrible weight cut and a mysterious infection, the featherweight champ’s body failed him in the fifth round, which allowed Hominick to come back and pour on a heap of abuse which nearly finished the fight.

According to Stockton Rules: It’s a draw. Hominick probably would have won if the fight were allowed to continue to additional rounds, but when you add in the “more fucked-up-looking” criteria, Aldo evens the score by making Hominick’s head look like a damn parade float. Raise both of their hands and make them fight again the next day. (Also known as “Stockton Scheduling.”)

ANDERSON SILVA vs. CHAEL SONNEN
UFC 117, 8/7/10

According to the scorecards: The fight never went to the judges. Silva won by triangle-armbar submission in round five.

What really happened: Chael Sonnen spent four and a half rounds taking Silva down at will and smashing him from the top. Hell, he was even getting the better of the standup exchanges somehow. And then, as has happened many times before in his pro career, Sonnen fell into the unforgiving crotch of a Brazilian and got choked out.

According to Stockton Rules: Sonnen by split-decision. Look, I know what you’re thinking — how could the guy who tapped out be considered the winner of a fight? Well, you clearly haven’t read the Stockton Rules fine print. As Nick Diaz explains at the 10:50 mark of his interview with Ariel, “I say, even if you tapped the guy out and you got your ass beat, you still got your ass beat, you know what I mean?”

Or, as Sonnen himself put it later, “In what parallel universe can you punch a man 300 times, he wraps his legs around your head for eight seconds and they declare him the winner? On the streets of West Linn, Oregon, if you lay on your back with your legs wrapped around a man’s head for eight seconds, that does not make you a winner. That makes…not a winner.” The man’s got a point — and it’s pretty obvious that Chael Sonnen is a Stocktonite at heart.

(BG)

Aldo to Defend Featherweight Strap Against Mendes at UFC 142 in January in Brazil

(Aldo will make his third UFC title defense at home in Brazil.)

Jose Aldo will be in for a stiff test when he puts his UFC featherweight crown on the line against undefeated 11-0 wrestling standout Chad Mendes on January 14 at UFC 142 in a yet-to-be-announced locale in Brazil.

“Pound-for-pound superstar Jose Aldo will return home to fight in Brazil for the first time since 2007 when he defends his UFC featherweight title against unbeaten powerhouse Chad Mendes,” UFC president Dana White revealed to FoxSports.com this morning. “Aldo hasn’t lost in over five years, but Mendes has yet to lose in MMA, and after clearing out all the contenders put in his way, he believes he has what it takes to beat the champion.”

Mendes has been patiently waiting for his shot at the champion since perennial contender Kenny Florian jumped the line to challenge Aldo last month, but the UFC has seemed reluctant to match the pair up, perhaps since the clash of styles could add up to an inevitably boring bout.

“Scarface, who is undefeated under the Zuffa Banner went to decision for the third time in his past four fights against Florian at UFC 136 as he did in his UFC 129 bout with durable Canadian Mark Hominick and his WEC 48 tilt with former WEC featherweight champ Urijah Faber. Six of Mendes’ past seven fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards. According to our uncannily accurate Magic 8-ball we consulted when Gina Carano said she’d be back this year, “signs point to yes,” when we asked it if this fight will go the distance.