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Four Reasons to Be Completely Psyched About UFC on FUEL 7: Barao vs. McDonald

(Fan-made poster via NixsonMmaPosters. Let’s just pretend that Siver isn’t there.)

We wouldn’t expect a FUEL card in London to be “stacked” in the traditional sense. But although this coming Saturday’s UFC on FUEL 7: Barao vs. McDonald event is low on star-power, it’s actually loaded with great matchups. Here’s why these fights are worth paying attention to…

1. The main card is a hot mess of blue-chip prospects.
Even more so than UFC on FUEL 7’s headliners, I’m excited to see the return of three guys who looked like juggernauts in their UFC debuts. First, we’ve got our old pal Ryan Jimmo, who entered the Octagon on a 16-fight win streak at UFC 149 and proceeded to sleep Anthony Perosh in just seven seconds, then gave fans their money’s worth by busting out a celebratory robot. Can he possibly repeat that performance this weekend against James Te-Huna?

Also in the light-heavyweight division, 12-0 Nigerian-English mauler Jimi Manuwa — who has never been to the third round in his entire career, by the way — will face Cyrille Diabaté, five months after Manuwa whipped Kyle Kingsbury to a doctor’s stoppage TKO after ten minutes of action. And finally, Icelandic grappling master Gunnar Nelson will follow up his swift choke-out of Damarques Johnson with a fight against Jorge Santiago, in a welterweight bout that will probably go very badly for Santiago.

The prelims also feature a few more guys who almost fit in the same “hot-prospect” category, including Stanislav Nedkov — who’s still technically undefeated after his loss to Thiago Silva was overturned in November — and Paul Sass, the submission wiz who took the first loss of his career against Matt Wiman in September.

2. Michael McDonald could become the youngest UFC champion ever* — and by a fairly wide margin.

(Fan-made poster via NixsonMmaPosters. Let’s just pretend that Siver isn’t there.)

1. The main card is a hot mess of blue-chip prospects.
Even more so than UFC on FUEL 7′s headliners, I’m excited to see the return of three guys who looked like juggernauts in their UFC debuts. First, we’ve got our old pal Ryan Jimmo, who entered the Octagon on a 16-fight win streak at UFC 149 and proceeded to sleep Anthony Perosh in just seven seconds, then gave fans their money’s worth by busting out a celebratory robot. Can he possibly repeat that performance this weekend against James Te-Huna?

2. Michael McDonald could become the youngest UFC champion ever* — and by a fairly wide margin.
When Jon Jones TKO’d Mauricio Rua to win the UFC light-heavyweight title at UFC 128, he was 23 years and nine months old. If Michael McDonald defeats Renan Barao for the interim bantamweight title in the UFC on FUEL 7 headliner, he’ll become a UFC champion at just 22 years and one month old. And make no mistake — “Mayday” McDonald has legitimately paid his dues for the opportunity. McDonald began competing professionally at the age of 16, and his current eight-fight win streak dates back to October 2009, when he was smashing everyone in his path as an 18-year-old in Tachi Palace Fights. Now 4-0 in the UFC and coming off first-round knockouts of Alex Soto and Miguel Torres, McDonald is a truly prodigious talent, and could give Barao the toughest test of his own phenomenal career.

3. Will Josh Grispi suffer the most dramatic career-implosion in UFC history?
Okay, this is more of a “reason to be morbidly curious” than a “reason to be completely psyched,” but it’s still worth mentioning. In 2010, Josh Grispi was one of the hottest featherweights on Earth, following an explosive 4-0 run in the WEC where he scored first-round stoppages of Mark Hominick, Micah Miller, Jens Pulver, and LC Davis. Grispi was booked to face Jose Aldo in the UFC’s first-ever featherweight title fight at UFC 125, but Aldo was forced to withdraw due to injury. Instead, Grispi faced newcomer Dustin Poirier in a non-title bout on the card, losing a unanimous decision and his title shot.

Later that year, Grispi took a rebound fight against George Roop, and wound up getting TKO’d in the third round. Finally, a bout against Brazilian journeyman Rani Yahya ended in another loss last August, this time by first-round submission. Now, “The Fluke” is facing TUF Live castmember Andy Ogle, who is officially 0-1 in the UFC. If Grispi manages to lose this one, he’ll almost certainly find himself released from the organization — the final chapter in a stunning reversal-of-fortune for his fight career.

4. Cub Swanson vs. Dustin Poirier is a great f*cking fight.
Like Cowboy vs. Pettis at UFC on FOX 6, this is the one matchup on the card that is virtually guaranteed to produce something spectacular. Swanson is on the hottest run of his career with consecutive knockouts of George Roop, Ross Pearson, and Charles Oliveira — and is usually the first guy that Greg Jackson-defenders point to as evidence that Yoda is not ruining the sport. Meanwhile, Poirier’s last four fights ended in three submission victories and an incredible Fight of Night performance against Chan Sung Jung. Swanson vs. Poirier could end in a swift and savage knockout, or it could turn out to be an unforgettable three-round war, but there’s no way it’ll be boring.

* Yes, I know Vitor Belfort was 19 years old when he won the UFC 12 tournament, so you don’t have to mention it in the comments section.

(BG)

The Evolution of Cub Swanson Continues at UFC on Fuel TV 7

Cub Swanson is a man on a mission.Following a 2012 campaign where the 29-year-old collected three impressive victories, Swanson is looking to keep his momentum rolling in the new year. The Southern California product will have the opportunity to take h…

Cub Swanson is a man on a mission.

Following a 2012 campaign where the 29-year-old collected three impressive victories, Swanson is looking to keep his momentum rolling in the new year. The Southern California product will have the opportunity to take his next step up the divisional ladder when he squares off with Dustin Poirier, who stepped in for an injured Dennis Siver, in the co-main event of UFC on Fuel TV 7 in London, England.

The bout against Poirier comes at a critical time in the 145-pound weight class. Over the past two weeks, contenders Frankie Edgar and Erik Koch had their title hopes turned back, and their losses have put the race to fill out the divisional upper tier in full swing.

Swanson understands the urgency of the moment, and the Jackson/Winkeljohn-trained fighter is looking to make a statement against the Louisiana native.

“Poirier is a well-rounded fighter,” Swanson told Bleacher Report. “I wouldn’t say he’s phenomenal anywhere but the guy is good everywhere. That can be a problem if I’m not well-prepared. With Siver I was expecting a stand-up battle but with Poirier I know he’s going to be looking for a takedown early and mixing up his kicks and punches well. I definitely have to be more aware of all aspects of the fight.

“We are both aggressive fighters who like to work at a high pace. We both fight with a lot of heart and always show up in shape. It could be a quick fight or a long, drawn-out three-round scrap. I’m ready for whatever.

“I’m trying to finish him right away,” Swanson added. “I’m prepared for three rounds of hell and I’m going to keep that pace the entire time. I’m going to try to put him out in the first. I feel that is what I have to do to make a statement.”

As the longest-tenured featherweight on the UFC roster, Swanson has watched the 145-pound weight class steadily develop over the years. That process has accelerated in recent months with several high-profile lightweight fighters dropping down to test the 145-pound waters.

The trend does not appear to be slowing down, as former WEC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis recently stated he was entertaining a possible drop down to featherweight to face Jose Aldo. Swanson appreciates the attention the bigger-named fighters are bringing to his weight class and has zero issues with welcoming them to the weight class.

“I think it is kind of funny because people keep dropping down and the fighters who are coming down are thinking it is going to be an easier road and it’s not,” Swanson said. “This division is a different animal. At the same time, guys dropping down brings more attention to the division and that attention is well-deserved because the featherweight division is exciting. I’m happy to be a part of it. 155 pounds is so stacked and to see some of those big-name guys come down and want to get some…I’m like hell yeah. That only brings more popularity to our division and makes bigger fights for us to take.

“When somebody drops down and takes a fight with me, I take it as they are looking at me like I’m an easy fight. I take it very disrespectfully. But that is my mentality.”

For years Swanson has battled to match his skill set to expectation. That being said, his recent three-fight win streak has indicators pointing to the scales of potential and progress finding a balance. Swanson has earned back-to-back “Knockout of the Night” honors and believes his career is firing on all cylinders. While a title shot is the ultimate goal, Swanson believes everything will work itself out in due time.

“I’m not really thinking about a title shot too much right now,” Swanson said. “If I get the title shot next I would love it, but I have this fight first and I have to perform well. I just want to be mentioned up there with the top names. If I stay on top of my game then I will get my shot. I’m not really concerned about it all too much right now. I’m just going to keep doing what I’m doing.

“All the hard work I’ve put in at the gym is paying off, but experience plays a big role too. I’m training smarter and all of the consecutive wins I’ve put together has me in a place where I feel as if I’m doing things right now. It gives you confidence that you are on the right track. I feel great and I’m ready any opponent. I have myself a tough guy in front of me and I’m excited.”

Make no mistake about it, fighting is in Swanson’s blood. From his days as a troubled youth to re-igniting his career to become one of the top featherweights in the world—Swanson knows the sacrifices it takes to alter the course of one’s journey.

Where fighting used to be Swanson’s physical outlet to vent frustration, it has now become a family affair, as older brother Steve has joined him in the professional ranks. “Killer Cub” believes it will only be a matter of time before his brother is making an impact inside the Octagon.

“My brother Steve [Swanson] is a 125-pound fighter and is 10-0 right now,” Swanson said. “He would make a great addition to the flyweight division and truly deserves to be in the UFC. He has five consecutive first-round finishes, is a heavy-hitter and it won’t be long before people know who he is. I would love to see him fighting inside the Octagon.”

Duane Finley is a Featured Columnist at Bleacher Report. All quotes were obtained firsthand unless noted otherwise.

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CagePotato Databomb #4: Breaking Down the UFC Featherweights by Striking Performance

(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

Last week, we started our series on UFC strikers by breaking down the smallest division in key striking metrics. This week, in time for the Featherweight title fight between Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar at UFC 156, we’ll look at the 145’ers. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included below.

The Winners

Sniper Award: Cub Swanson has been on a roll lately and tops out as the division’s most accurate striker, landing 37% of his power head strike attempts. For perspective, that’s bordering on Anderson Silva-type accuracy, at least statistically. This has helped Swanson win three straight in the UFC, all by (T)KO, and pick up two straight Knockout of the Night bonuses.

Energizer Bunny Award: Southpaw Erik Koch has more than doubled the striking output of his opponents. But that wasn’t enough to stop the ground Hellbows from Ricardo Lamas on last Saturday’s FOX card. There’s no doubt about Koch’s skills, he’ll just have to wait longer to test them against the current champ.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: Andy Ogle may cry a lot when he’s away from home, but no one should doubt the size of his, ahem, heart. Though he dropped a split decision in his UFC debut against Akira Corassani, he managed to knock down the Swede despite landing only two solid strikes to the head. He’d better improve his accuracy and pull the trigger more often if he hopes to get past the similarly gun-shy yet powerful Josh Grispi at UFC on FUEL 7 next month. Other notable featherweights with knockdown power include Koch, Aldo, Dennis Siver and Dennis Bermudez.

(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

The Winners

The Losers

Swing and a Miss Award: Recent UFC debutant Yaotzin Meza failed to land a single power head strike on Chad Mendes during his two-minute KO loss at UFC on FX 6. Other guys also needing some accuracy improvement include Hacran Dias and Rani Yahya, who each miss nine times out of ten.

Smallest Ball(s): 22 of the 49 Featherweights shown here have yet to score a knockdown, but Nik Lentz and Nam Phan have failed to do so despite over two hours of total Octagon fight time each.

Starnes Award for Inaction: Josh “The Gentleman” Clopton threw a total of 33 standing strikes over three full rounds at the TUF 14 Finale against Steven Siler, who more than doubled Clopton’s output. That’s barely two strikes per minute. Clopton was heard politely saying, “no, after you!” before each exchange.

Also Noteworthy

According to the data, Jose Aldo matches pace with his opponents, but is more accurate, and has clear knockout power. Frankie Edgar*, however, doesn’t have the same accuracy or power, and is in fact below average for the division by those metrics. We’ll see how things play out this weekend at UFC 156 in what Dana White is billing as the first “Super Fight” of the year. Also coming up on February 16th, we’ll see two of the featherweight division’s best, Cub Swanson and Dustin Poirier, face off for a potential contender spot.

Next week we’ll look at the Bantamweights in time to see how Renan Barao and Michael McDonald stack up with the rest of the division. Any predictions on who will take the awards?

How the Analysis Works:

In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Flyweights is about 25%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.

Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.

* The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, through UFC 155. Many of these fighters (such as Frankie Edgar) competed in other higher weight classes, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed.

For more on the science and stats of MMA, follow @Fightnomics on Twitter or on Facebook. See more MMA analytical research at www.fightnomics.com.

Dennis Siver Out, Dustin Poirier in vs. Cub Swanson at ‘UFC on FUEL 7?

(The best part about having palm trees tattooed across your waistline, you ask? Endless cocoNUT jokes.)

A bit of mixed news for fans of the featherweight division, as word just broke that Dennis Siver has been forced to withdraw from his UFC on FUEL 7 bout with Cub Swanson for undisclosed reasons. The good news: stepping in for Siver will be Dustin Poirier, an exciting slugger who has picked up end of the night bonuses in two out of his last three contests. Although Poirier doesn’t exactly match the ridiculous offensive output of Siver, you can bet the ranch that this fight will net another bonus for at least one of these gentlemen when all is said and done.

A fellow top contender, Poirier recently bounced back into the win column by beating TUF 12 winner Jonathan Brookins into damn near retirement. Swanson, on the other hand, has been on an absolute killing spree in his last three bouts, finishing George Roop, Ross Pearson, and Charles Oliveira with punches inside the first two rounds. In fact, before Siver dropped out, Swanson stated on his Twitter account that the fight was being lobbied as the potential number 1 contender matchup at 145. Meanwhile, Chan-Sung Jung has apparently fallen off the face of the earth.

After the jump: Full fight videos of Poirier vs. Brookins and Swanson vs. Oliveira, which we secured through completely legal means. We swear. Just don’t tell anyone you got them from us, OK?

(The best part about having palm trees tattooed across your waistline, you ask? Endless cocoNUT jokes.)

After the jump: Full fight videos of Poirier vs. Brookins and Swanson vs. Oliveira, which we secured through completely legal means. We swear. Just don’t tell anyone you got them from us, OK?

Poirier vs. Brookins (fight starts at the 10:30 mark)

Swanson vs. Oliveira

–J. Jones

UFC on Fuel 7: Dustin Poirier Replaces Injured Dennis Siver; Faces Cub Swanson

The injury bug refuses to slow down. It’s most recent victim was an important battle for contendership within the featherweight division. MMAJunkie.com revealed on Thursday that Dennis Siver has been forced out of a scheduled bout against Cub Swan…

The injury bug refuses to slow down. It’s most recent victim was an important battle for contendership within the featherweight division.

MMAJunkie.com revealed on Thursday that Dennis Siver has been forced out of a scheduled bout against Cub Swanson at UFC on Fuel 7. His replacement is none other than Dustin “Diamond” Poirier.

This fight was a hotly-anticipated battle of strikers, as both Siver and Swanson prefer to turn their bouts into slugfests.

After a loss to Donald Cerrone shut down the momentum of four consecutive wins, Siver dropped down to featherweight, where he currently holds a flawless 2-0 record.

Although Swanson struggled to maintain any momentum while fighting for the WEC, he now holds a three-fight winning streak inside the Octagon. Each victory in his trio of success came against a notable, as he outstruck George Roop, Ross Pearson and Charles Oliveira.

Poirier is fresh off of a submission victory over Jonathan Brookins in December, which improves his UFC record to 5-1. The sole blemish came in a Fight of the Year winner against Chan Sung Jung last May.

This fight will likely avoid the scorecards, as Swanson and Poirier have only gone to decision a combined five times in 38 professional fights.

UFC on Fuel 7 comes to you live from Wembley Arena in London, England on Saturday, February 16. The event is currently headlined by a UFC interim bantamweight title fight between Renan Barao and Michael McDonald.

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