Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Saudi Arabia mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow (Sat., Feb. 1, 2025) on ESPN+ from inside ANB Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, featuring a middleweight main event between former 185-pound champion Israel Adesanya and fast-rising French phenom Nassourdine Imavov, a five-round headliner with major title implications for late 2025 and beyond.
Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 185-pound scrap between former Bellator MMA banger Michael “Venom” Page and half-blind hometown hero Shara “Bullet” Magomedov, get all the latest “Adesanya vs. Imavov” odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel right here. For UFC Saudi Arabia live results and play-by-play click here.
185 lbs.: Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya
Record: 24-4 | Age: 35 | Betting line: -165
Wins: 16 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 8 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 6’4“ | Reach: 80” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.00 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.21 | Striking Defense: 56%
Takedown Average: 0.05 (12% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 75%
Current Ranking: No. 2 | Last fight: Submission loss to Dricus Du Plessis
Nassourdine “The Sniper” Imavov
Record: 15-4, 1 NC | Age: 29 | Betting line: +140
Wins: 6 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 75” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.51 | Striking accuracy: 55%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.20 | Striking Defense: 58%
Takedown Average: 0.88 (36% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 78%
Current Ranking: No. 5 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Brendan Allen
Israel Adesanya competes in his first non-title fight in nearly six years, and that bout is worth mentioning because it came against then-welterweight contender Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 236 … and it was close. Adesanya was 29 at the time and clearly in his competitive prime but Gastelum’s durability and granite chin — along with his unorthodox style — took “The Last Stylebender” to the judges’ scorecards. I think it merits review before we decide that Adesanya is washed up or over the hill based on consecutive losses to Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis, a pair of younger middleweights who like Gastelum, presented a unique set of styles. There’s also the possibility that Adesanya has exhausted himself and is no longer a championship-caliber fighter, both physically and mentally. Over the last seven years, the former kickboxer has competed a whopping 17 times, carrying 12 of those events on his back as pay-per-view (PPV) headliner. Of all the accolades afforded to Adesanya, his ability to manage a championship schedule (and all the extra bullsh*t that comes with it) should be at or near the top.
“So like when that moment happens, like against Gastelum, and he was in the corner in the fifth round and he went, ‘I’ll die for this,’ and he was like mouthing to himself, ‘I’ll die for this, I’ll die for this,’ he had money,” Cormier said on “Good Guy/Bad Guy” with Chael Sonnen. “He was a kickboxing champion, but he was fighting for an interim championship with the opportunity to get to Robert Whittaker to become the unified champion. He didn’t have money at the rate that he has right now. He didn’t have the zeroes in the bank account. He didn’t have the accolades. He did not have the notoriety. He’ll find himself in that fourth to fifth round with Imavov this weekend and have to dig deep knowing that nothing changes if he doesn’t, right? Nothing changes.”
Adesanya insists his legacy is secure, win or lose.
“Israel Adesanya will still be a star if he wins or he loses,” Cormier continued. “Israel Adesanya will still collect the same paycheck on Saturday night if he loses. The money he has in the bank remains the same. All of his investments and properties will remain the same. How does he pull back to that moment when he didn’t have all those things if need be? I never in my life fought a five-round main event that wasn’t for a championship, and I’ve got to be honest: I don’t think that I could. I don’t think I could have went 25 minutes without knowing that there was a shiny gold belt waiting on the end of that because it’s hard to pull that dog out of you whenever you don’t get that thing that means so much when the night’s over.”
Nassourdine Imavov is now ranked in the Top 5 at 185 pounds after stringing together three straight wins, including his unanimous decision victory over Brendan Allen at UFC Paris last September. Whether or not you consider the Frenchman to be a legitimate threat to the middleweight throne likely depends on how much stock you put into his opposition thus far. I would argue that his wins have come over good (but not great) competition. Allen possesses subpar striking, Jared Cannonier turns 41 in March, and Roman Dolidze is 2-2 over the last two years. I’m not knocking his performances, but I’m also not in any big hurry to pick him against a former champion who spent the last five years as one of the promotion’s top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport. Imavov is nicknamed “The Sniper” which statically speaking, is accurate. He connects at a higher percentage than Adesanya and lands more volume per minute, while also boasting better numbers on defense.
Probably because he’s never had to fight killers like Robert Whittaker and Alex Pereira.
“I don’t think he’s getting older,” Imavov said through an interpreter during Wednesday’s UFC Saudi Arabia media day. “If you look at his fight against [Du Plessis], he was doing very well. In my opinion, he was winning the fight before the submission. So, I think he’s going to come very focused, very hungry. Even though I don’t focus too much on him, I focus more on myself, what I’m going to do, the shape I’m going to be in the fight, and I hope he’s going to be in the best shape so I can beat the best Israel Adesanya.”
Adesanya is not the fighter he used to be, thanks to his advancing age and accumulation of damage over the years. Fortunately for “Stylebender” fans, he doesn’t need to be in order to secure the victory against Imavov. Adesanya has fought and defeated better strikers, stuffed more decorated wrestlers, and gone five rounds (with ease) nearly a dozen times in his storied combat sports career. Unless the former champion has suffered a complete collapse, I would expect him to capture a convincing (but hard-fought) victory on all three scorecards.
Prediction: Adesanya def. Imavov by decision
185 lbs.: Shara Magomedov vs. Michael Page
Shara “Bullet” Magomedov
Record: 15-0 | Age: 30 | Betting line: -190
Wins: 12 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’2“ | Reach: 73” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.82 | Striking accuracy: 65%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.49 | Striking Defense: 42%
Takedown Average: 0.00 (0% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 71%
Current Ranking: No. 14 | Last fight: Knockout win over Armen Petrosyan
Michael “Venom” Page
Record: 22-3 | Age: 37 | Betting line: +160
Wins: 13 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 79” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.38 | Striking accuracy: 65%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 1.45 | Striking Defense: 54%
Takedown Average: 0.44 (25% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 63%
Current Ranking: No. 15 (Welterweight) | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Ian Garry
Shara Magomedov has been a fun addition to the UFC middleweight division but appears to be relegated to Middle East cards or locations where the promotion serves as its own athletic commission. That’s because “Bullet” is blind in one eye, which is the sort of thing stateside regulators frown upon (and stop fights over). Magomedov has won all four of his fights for UFC with two knockouts to keep his perfect record intact at 15-0, snatching three post-fight performance bonuses along the way. His offensive output borders on fiction, landing a staggering 6.82 significant strikes per minute at 65-percent accuracy. Like most strikers, “Bullet” lives and dies by the sword, absorbing an unhealthy 4.49 significant strikes per minute with 58-percent of incoming fire finding a home. The Russian bruiser has yet to shoot for a takedown under the UFC banner and I doubt he’ll start here, even though it may present a clearer path to victory.
“He’s a 10-time kickboxing champion with light contact kickboxing,” Magomedov told MMA Junkie. “I’m a Russian Muay Thai champion. I’ve fought in stadiums in Thailand and other places. I have the status of ‘Master of Sports’ in different fighting categories, in different fighting sports. I have better striking. I have better cardio. I think when we’re in the Octagon together, there’s going to be nowhere for him to run. Kickboxers they usually just fight for points. They lightly touch. They tap. They slap, almost. But when it comes to Muay Thai and Lethwei, the folks who do those type of sports, they kick and hit so hard as to break a bone of their opponent. It’s every punch and every hit could be a fight-ending punch.”
“[Beating Page] shows that I’m one of the best strikers when it comes to the middleweight division or the welterweight division,” Magomedov continued. “I’m going to show when it comes to my striking, there’s no equals to me. In this fight, on my side, is the strength, the power. On his side is the speed and the movement. As for the knockout on Feb. 1, all I’m going to say is, do not blink. Just watch the fight. You want to see it. You don’t want to miss anything.”
Michael Page finally made his Octagon debut back in early 2024 but unfortunately, UFC got him about five years too late. “MVP” turns 38 in April and will be abandoning the welterweight division for this co-main event one-off, which proves he’s a team player, if nothing else. The Brit remains one of the sport’s most technical strikers who made a career out of toying with overmatched punching bags in Bellator MMA. His debut against Kevin Holland at UFC 299 proved he’s still got the chops to style on middle-of-the-pack cage fighters, just as his follow-up fight against Ian Garry at UFC 303 demonstrated that he’s not a lock against the top half of the division. The immediate concern heading into UFC Saudi Arabia is the move to 185 pounds, where he can surely hang but just as surely doesn’t belong. Working in his favor is the fact that his co-main event is only three rounds, so a stick-and-move strategy — coupled with a stingy defense — could easily produce a sweep on the judges’ scorecards, assuming the judges aren’t getting boiled in oil for picking against the local favorite.
“I’m happy to shoot a takedown, this is an MMA game,” Page said during the UFC Saudi Arabia media day (watch it here). “So, I’m happy to do it. I’ve been working on that area, but I don’t feel like I’ll need to. There’s a difference. I may get to a point where I feel like it may be worth draining him out on the floor a little bit, landing some shots, elbows on the floor. So I may do that, but I don’t think I’m going to need to. Whereas, if he shoots a takedown, it’ll be for a completely different reason. If I do it, it’s just part of my gameplan. If he does it, he’s in danger. That’s the difference. MMA is a very, very small world, and I hear he doesn’t really like doing jiu-jitsu and wrestling. He maybe neglects some of his jiu-jitsu and wrestling so, I’m definitely confident. If he decides to go there, it’s going to be even more of a problem for him.”
Page can essentially play matador for 15 minutes and counter-punch his way to a decision. That would require him to frustrate Magomedov and force “Bullet” to misfire by punching out of aggravation. The more likely scenario is that Magomedov steps on the gas and never lets off, forcing “MVP” to scurry to and fro on his back foot for most of the fight. I don’t think a victory for either competitor would surprise me, it’s just hard to pick Page when he has the clearer disadvantages on fight night.
Prediction: Magomedov def. Page by decision
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Saudi Arabia fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card matchups, which are scheduled to begin at 9 a.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+ at 12 p.m. ET.
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