Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight veterans Jan Blachowicz and Luke Rockhold will square off this Saturday (July 6, 2019) at UFC 239 from inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Given the putrid start to his UFC career, Blachowicz came miraculously close to a title shot in 2019. He came up short to Thiago Santos in a title eliminator back in February, but prior to that defeat, Blachowicz had shown considerable improvement, rattling off four straight wins. UFC 221 screwed Rockhold so badly the former champion switched divisions. Initially, Rockhold was set to challenge Robert Whittaker for the title, but an injury to the Aussie saw an overweight Yoel Romero take his place for a mere interim title. Despite considerable improvements to his boxing, Rockhold still found himself staring at the ceiling in the third round — proof that it was time to find greener pastures.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
Jan Blachowicz
Record: 23-8
Key Wins: Jimi Manuwa (UFC Fight Night 127), Ilir Latifi (UFC Fight Night 53), Nikita Krylov (UFC Fight Night 136), Jared Cannonier (UFC on FOX 26)
Key Losses: Thiago Santos (UFC Fight Night 145), Alexander Gustafsson (UFC Fight Night 93), Jimi Manuwa (UFC Fight Night 64), Corey Anderson (UFC 191)
Keys to Victory: Once he fixed his cardio, Blachowicz was able to capitalize on his historically well-rounded skill set. The Polish athlete can jab well, kick hard, wrestle if need be, and even pull off the occasional submission win.
The bright side of being a generalist is the ability to adapt to the opponent as necessary. In this case, Rockhold has only ever lost by knockout, usually from an opponent with sharper boxing than himself. It’s pretty clear how Blachowicz should attempt to take him out.
Rockhold is going to try to slam his left leg into Blachowicz’s mid-section and skull, so pressure boxing would be a wise strategy even if Rockhold did react well to combinations. If Blachowicz is to win this fight, he has to be aggressive and show Rockhold no respect. Work forward behind the jab, sure, but throw multiple punch combinations, ideally when Rockhold hits the fence.
If Blachowicz can put together punches and be ready to defend the takedown attempt when it comes, he’s got a real chance to score the upset.
Luke Rockhold
Record: 16-4
Key Wins: Chris Weidman (UFC 194), Ronaldo Souza (Strikeforce: Barnett vs Kharitonov), Lyoto Machida (UFC on FOX 15), Tim Kennedy (Strikeforce: Rockhold vs Kennedy), Dave Branch (UFC Fight Night 116)
Key Losses: Michael Bisping (UFC 199), Yoel Romero (UFC 221), Vitor Belfort (UFC on FX 8)
Keys to Victory: Rockhold is a dangerous man. His top game is perhaps the most vicious in the sport, as Rockhold tends to elbow his foe into paste or lock up a choke within just minutes of securing the takedown. On his feet, Rockhold kicks like a mule, and his check hook has dropped a fair few foes as well.
It will be interesting to see how Rockhold transitions to Light Heavyweight. His left kick will definitely still carry power, but will it fold foes over like it did at 185 pounds? The same question applies to the double-edged sword that is Rockhold’s check hook.
Realistically, I’d like to see Rockhold make two changes for his new weight class. Against Romero, it seemed that Henri Hooft’s work with Rockhold was paying off: the former champion was doubling up on a sharp jab, pivoting and generally showing off better combination boxing than ever before. Rockhold should continue down that path here, using combinations more often rather than being a bit one-note with the left kick and check hook.
In addition, Rockhold should be more willing to offensively wrestle, which tends to exhaust Light Heavyweights quickly. Rockhold has always shown great cardio and a brutal top game — it’s time to take advantage.
Bottom Line: This is a very important fight at 205 pounds.
Blachowicz may have lost his title eliminator bout, but the division is hardly full of other men trying to steal his place — there’s really no one in the Top 10 making big statements right now. If Blachowicz bounces back here and scores another big win, it’s very possible that he could match up with someone like Anthony Smith or Johnny Walker in a second title eliminator. Really, this could be the best win of his career.
Similarly, Rockhold has already spoken quite a bit about facing Jon Jones, and the match up seems distinctly possible as Jones’ next title defense. As a former champion, Rockhold is already sort of in the mix given Light Heavyweight’s general thinness. If he impresses, Rockhold may just get his title shot. At worst, he’s also been talking trash with Anthony Smith for months now, so that would be a reasonable follow up as well.
At UFC 239, Jan Blachowicz and Luke Rockhold will go to war. Which man will earn the victory?